Coronavirus

[Born Hunter 17,639]

5 minutes ago, NEWKID said:

Sorry.... my point is the stats about flu deaths v covid 19 deaths or total deaths on average every day mean nothing in this instance imo...

Ebola killed 70% (I think) of the people who contracted it...but it barely got out of a couple of countries in Africa...

This has gone around the globe in a couple of months and the end result will be counted up in the deaths caused because of it, not purely down to it....

I agree we shouldn't panic, but we should certainly pull the stops out to prevent the spread... you just dont see a world wide reaction like this ever..

I only quote other stats to put this in perspective. We're all very focussed on this one disease with no real reference to judge it by. We're judging it by policy, rather than actual fatality, morbidity etc data, which seems bizarre to me.

Yes I get that the policy decisions are unprecedented but that doesn't mean that it's going to be bad. It means it would be bad if we did nothing.

I'll be back when it's all blown over and you lot can tell me I was wrong. LOL

[Born Hunter 17,639]

15 minutes ago, tandors said:

Best stats to look at is the diamond princess. A cruise ship full of old people, cant remember the infection and death rates but I'm sure they weren't anything to get hysterical over. 

696 total cases, 7 dead, couple hundred active still.

I also thought that that would make a brilliant case study.

[riohog 5,621]

by the sound of it more people will die from worrying about it than will from catching it ,my view is your more likely to catch it hopefully survive it 

[tandors 888]

Theres a link on top of this thread that highlights the 2 strategies that is worth a read. Looks like we are heading down mitigation route as opposed to suppression.

[Chid 6,377]

Wonder if them figures are true ..

[dogmandont 9,364]

9 minutes ago, baker boy said:

My old mum (80) was supposed to have an operation tomorrow to save her eyesight, cancelled this afternoon

Sorry to hear that bb.

I’m worried about my own parents with them both being in their 80s. 

[MH1 1,805]

Will anything happen to China over this? Or business as usual when it dies down?

[dogmandont 9,364]

18 minutes ago, MH1 said:

Will anything happen to China over this? Or business as usual when it dies down?

Business as usual until the next virus explodes out of the dirty shithole, was watching bits about their wet markets and how they keep butchered animals next to living and the amount of cross contamination between species that takes place in them is fcuking horrendous. 

[lurcherman 887 12,685]

My kids all given permission to stay off now until after Easter .. can’t risk it with the mother In law 

[DIDO.1 20,887]

10 hours ago, Chid said:

Wonder if them figures are true ..

They may or may not be true but they do miss the point. Older people and people with health issues can survive corona reasonably well if they can be identified and given help with breathing. The problem is when so many people become ill at once then there simply isn't the help available. When we have a flu sweeps across the country, in winter, then it fills the system and lots of operations etc get cancelled. With corona it will infect more people because we have zero immunity and no vaccine. Vaccines in young and old effectively put fire breaks in across the country. If this runs wild then it might get to a state where 999 calls about elderly with breathing issues who would otherwise be easily saved are simply told to make themselves comfortable and hope for the best, and even as bad as self storing dead bodies as the system clogs up. Other countries have avoided this but its a balence of resources against shutting down for minimum time without destroying economies in a way that will make the last ressesion look like a walk in the park

[Born Hunter 17,639]

In the interests of presenting the experts views, this is what has caused the change in strategy here.

Quote

The modelling study, by Imperial College, and led by Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert on the spread of infectious diseases, was published on March 16. It is entitled the “Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand.”

Below are some of the findings of the research:

** If no action had been taken against the virus it would have caused 510,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States, the study said.

“The epidemic is predicted to be broader in the U.S. than in GB and to peak slightly later. This is due to the larger geographic scale of the US, resulting in more distinct localised epidemics across states,” the study said.

** The British government’s previous plan to control the virus involving home isolation of suspect cases, but not including restrictions on wider society, could have resulted in 250,000 people dying, the researchers said.

The approach would “likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over,” the study said.

** The study said that a strategy of draconian restrictions was the best way to tackle the virus.

“We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound,” the study said.

“Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.”

** The study said that 9% of people in the most vulnerable age group, and older, could die if infected.

** The health impacts from coronavirus are comparable to the devastating 1918 influenza outbreak.

“The last time the world responded to a global emerging disease epidemic of the scale of the current COVID-19 pandemic with no access to vaccines was the 1918-19 H1N1 influenza pandemic,” the study said.

** To curb the epidemic, the restrictions being in place until a vaccine was found in 12 to 18 months, the research said.

“The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed,” the study said.

 

[iworkwhippets 12,247]

29 minutes ago, DIDO.1 said:

They may or may not be true but they do miss the point. Older people and people with health issues can survive corona reasonably well if they can be identified and given help with breathing. The problem is when so many people become ill at once then there simply isn't the help available. When we have a flu sweeps across the country, in winter, then it fills the system and lots of operations etc get cancelled. With corona it will infect more people because we have zero immunity and no vaccine. Vaccines in young and old effectively put fire breaks in across the country. If this runs wild then it might get to a state where 999 calls about elderly with breathing issues who would otherwise be easily saved are simply told to make themselves comfortable and hope for the best, and even as bad as self storing dead bodies as the system clogs up. Other countries have avoided this but its a balence of resources against shutting down for minimum time without destroying economies in a way that will make the last ressesion look like a walk in the park

I will be 76 may 3rd, ive been up since 3 30, made some breakfast, whats the point, had a wash n shave, whats the point, im after a dog for company, whats the point, bills need paying, whats the point, car wants taxing end of month, whats the point, mot is due, whats the point, ive tried to think positive, but im all in, nobody ever calls,

[Born Hunter 17,639]

Quote

“The measures which have just been taken, the earliest we’d expect to see an effect on the growth of the epidemic is about two to three weeks time,” said Professor Neil Ferguson, an expert on the spread of infectious diseases at Imperial College London.

“I think we’re still behind the epidemic seen in other European countries,” he told BBC radio. “I overall think we’ve got the timing about right.”

“Certainly there wasn’t any time to lose,” he said.

 

[riohog 5,621]

2 minutes ago, Born Hunter said:

In the interests of presenting the experts views, this is what has caused the change in strategy here.

 

fkn helli need a ly down after reading that  

[kinkell 787]

Wonder if the yellow vests in France will be out