Covid 19: What’s the lesson ?

[Born Hunter 17,639]

Just now, maxhardcore said:

No I wasn't told it was fiction ' I was told packed cafes ' Resturaunts ' pubs and youth gathering en mass was bullshit / nonsense because it wasn't happening in their areas .

Max, you're missing the point. You made the claim that the pandemic is exaggerated because there wasn't a spike because you were seeing the world was 'back to normal' with the examples of packed cafes etc. The 'fiction' was the claim that the country was back to normal, not that you saw a cafe packed out. Most the rest of the country is not allowing that and is far from 'back to normal'.

Despite all that, there's still been the spike you wanted to see. But I doubt that will change your mind, just refocus you on your other delusions.

[Born Hunter 17,639]

11 minutes ago, maxhardcore said:

What Iv said all along the virus is real' and we all should follow sensible precautions to help limit its spread and protect those vunreable ie the same folk vulnerable to seasonal influenza and pnumonia ect.

I still maintain the managing of this new virus is a shambles and that the kill rate is way off the mark.

I think more have been infected that the numbers suggest and I think the deaths have been less than suggested .

I also stated that folk wernt paying heed re gathering in Resturaunts ' Cafes and on the streets with no distancing or masks and I was told nonsense .

Look we all grown ups and we all have Free Will to make our own decisions .

Imo it's a real virus ' just not as. Deadly as we been told and that we being played for probably a good number of reasons that's beneficial to the upper echelons and the plebs will foot the bill for decades to come and with less freedoms to boot.

Everyone can make of it as they want and craic on because life is short.

Max, we know fine well by now what you think. What we're struggling with is why you think the window cleaner's anecdotes has more weight than all the actual lifelong scientists working on this....

I'll hazard a guess it has something vaguely to do with common sense and sheep. yawn....

[WILF 44,328]

Do what is sensible to do......but keep one very close eye on the government while you are doing it  

You can’t take a firm position in a developing situation, you have to develop with it.

 

[Born Hunter 17,639]

Just now, maxhardcore said:

Your Common Sense will develop with life experience .

Dont worry son

Aye but when will yours? 

[sandymere 8,261]

20 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

I'm not angry with you, lol. You post alternative theories and sceptic stuff. That's fine by me and important. I just got mad with the fella because I thought he was being very sloppy.

Yeah, that was exactly what he was saying. Except I would say that you can't conclude that Imperials modelling was 12 times out for Sweden, as their modelling was for a 'do absolutely nothing' scenario, when in fact they did quite a lot.

I can believe that there is a better way than lockdown, lockdown is an act of desperation, Sweden might have even got it right, but we can't compare that 'do nothing' modelling result with what they actually did and conclude that Imperial were 12 times out because they didn't do nothing.

Sweden is an interesting case to watch but perhaps not follow, time will tell.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3765

 

[Born Hunter 17,639]

20 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

Also, I read a thing earlier that when you correct UK case numbers for testing volume there isn't anywhere near as much of a second wave as the raw numbers are having folks believe. You touched on that a few weeks ago. I tried to get hold of the data to replicate it for myself but couldn't easily find it.

@Greyman Found someone else's work on the same point.

So this is what we see published on whatever and sometimes the media erroneously reference. Just basic case numbers, what an analyst might refer to as 'raw data'.

But like you said a while back they're increasing testing volume which logically will lead to more positives even if there's not actually an increased number of infections. Well here's that data and as we can see the "second wave" don't look half as bad....

Which you can see has a similar trend to deaths, which gives a bit of confidence that we're now representing the truth of the situation.

[Born Hunter 17,639]

6 minutes ago, maxhardcore said:

I'm totally aware 

[Greyman 25,276]

19 minutes ago, maxhardcore said:

Your Common Sense will develop with life experience .

Dont worry son

Not to patronising, as an old fecker may I just say you have to earn respect not just demand it and age is not always = to knowledge, we all have much to learn from each other and borns  posts make a lot more sense than many of his elders on this site and he’s someone that checks his sources before broadcasting them, unlike many others

[Greyman 25,276]

Born, I had to take my daughter to work this morning and get her car mot,d for her, she is the head of science in a school, and we were discussing a few things about this virus on our early morning run down the m5, something she said stuck in my ear and I wanted to ask your views on it, she said that the scientists that jump on these things early and make these predictions are setting themselves up for a fall, the reason she gave was because everything they come out with is un tested and un challenged and as it’s a new thing they have no data for comparisons or a starting point, made quite a bit of sense and in my simplified mind sounds to me that it’s nothing more than educated guess work until we have gone a full 12 month cycle and can start making comparisons and cross checking 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[South hams hunter 8,837]

3 hours ago, maxhardcore said:

What Iv said all along the virus is real' and we all should follow sensible precautions to help limit its spread and protect those vunreable ie the same folk vulnerable to seasonal influenza and pnumonia ect.

I still maintain the managing of this new virus is a shambles and that the kill rate is way off the mark.

I think more have been infected that the numbers suggest and I think the deaths have been less than suggested .

I also stated that folk wernt paying heed re gathering in Resturaunts ' Cafes and on the streets with no distancing or masks and I was told nonsense .

Look we all grown ups and we all have Free Will to make our own decisions .

Imo it's a real virus ' just not as. Deadly as we been told and that we being played for probably a good number of reasons that's beneficial to the upper echelons and the plebs will foot the bill for decades to come and with less freedoms to boot.

Everyone can make of it as they want and craic on because life is short.

Thought you could only do small posts

[gnasher16 29,663]

1 hour ago, Greyman said:

Born, I had to take my daughter to work this morning and get her car mot,d for her, she is the head of science in a school, and we were discussing a few things about this virus on our early morning run down the m5, something she said stuck in my ear and I wanted to ask your views on it, she said that the scientists that jump on these things early and make these predictions are setting themselves up for a fall, the reason she gave was because everything they come out with is un tested and un challenged and as it’s a new thing they have no data for comparisons or a starting point, made quite a bit of sense and in my simplified mind sounds to me that it’s nothing more than educated guess work until we have gone a full 12 month cycle and can start making comparisons and cross checking 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the mad looking f****r who doesnt blink said something similar right at the very start of all this.....( not Vallance the other one ).....you dont need to be a scientist for that to make sense.

[Born Hunter 17,639]

1 hour ago, Greyman said:

Born, I had to take my daughter to work this morning and get her car mot,d for her, she is the head of science in a school, and we were discussing a few things about this virus on our early morning run down the m5, something she said stuck in my ear and I wanted to ask your views on it, she said that the scientists that jump on these things early and make these predictions are setting themselves up for a fall, the reason she gave was because everything they come out with is un tested and un challenged and as it’s a new thing they have no data for comparisons or a starting point, made quite a bit of sense and in my simplified mind sounds to me that it’s nothing more than educated guess work until we have gone a full 12 month cycle and can start making comparisons and cross checking 

I sort of agree but it's complicated. I mean the more data you get the more rigorous the conclusions are likely to be, so roughly time equals confidence. Under normal circumstances the research wouldn't have moved this quick and would have had time to be chewed on a bit. I personally think what's being done is largely good stuff but I agree that 'thinking time' rarely makes things worse in research. Even in the unlikely event that it all turns out to be completely wrong, the work was fair given the urgency and limited data imo.

My old boss used to say "I need to walk the dog with this", his dog died fecking years ago but it's when he found he straightened things out.

 

[pesky1972 4,929]

One question asked at the daily brief yesterday was why the numbers of +ve cases in North of England and Scotland are so much higher than down South. No real explanation offered, but I wondered if this was maybe a sign that a degree of ‘herd immunity’ already exists in the population. Certainly pre-lockdown I think the virus was much more prevalent in the South. Think Vallance said yesterday of the peak months back, that as many as 100k a day may have been infected too. 

A lot of what’s happening now looks haphazard and even reckless depending on your viewpoint, but I think that the ‘sheep-dipping’ of uni students up here is deliberate, or at least a calculated risk. They’ve been infected en masse and now confined to barracks. Once they’re all over it, the boozers, Nandos etc. will all be full to bursting again. Happy days.

My daughter’s off school as someone in her class tested +ve. I think if they tested everyone they’d find the schools are fcukin riddled with it. Autumn holidays in a week up here.., already talk of a mini lockdown ‘circuit breaker’ over the school break. 

[Arry 18,610]

Maybe its this kind of behaviour at Universities.

 

https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/30/coventry-university-200-students-attend-illegal-rave-in-halls-13347827/

Cheers Arry

[king 11,664]

4 hours ago, maxhardcore said:

The answer is don't join or use f**k Face.

It really is the realm of bottom feeders .

Are any of your family members on facebook max ?