Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 There's some smart fellas on here. Please, someone else spend half an hour looking at the numbers and show me where I'm wrong. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
kanny 19,389 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 32 minutes ago, Born Hunter said: Cheers mate. I personally think that's some pretty shitty reporting. I've done my own analysis and when you correct for the onset of the epidemic in the UK by 13 days (we had our first death 13 days after Italy did) the rate of deaths is arguably less than Italy. But frankly probably about on par. Italy will likely surpass the 10% death ratio today, now I understand that it's not as black and white as the figures suggest but its still a sobering prospect if we are set to follow them in any way . Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, kanny said: Italy will likely surpass the 10% death ratio today, now I understand that it's not as black and white as the figures suggest but its still a sobering prospect if we are set to follow them in any way . I'm not sure how much I trust those numbers. The country has been so overwhelmed that people are dying in their own beds. I believe the dead count numbers, I just don't believe that they have a faintest clue as to what the total case count is. That said, I expect the case fatality rate to vary significantly from region to region, as seen in China. 10% is totally reasonable. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 Also, that graph was plotted on Log Lin scales, like the one in the Express report. Plotted Lin Lin looks even more optimistic. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
riohog 5,621 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Born Hunter said: I think that's impossible to say at this stage mate. Too many factors at play. The peak depends largely on our behaviour at this point. How effectively we implement social distancing, how effectively we equip the NHS etc. All I'd say is that I am extremely dubious of claims that we are worse off than Italy. The data I'm looking at doesn't support that at this point. i think we are and will be far better equiped to deal with it than italy yes .folks behavour i cant predict , but noticeable quiter today than yesterday in my area 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
kanny 19,389 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 Just now, Born Hunter said: I'm not sure how much I trust those numbers. The country has been so overwhelmed that people are dying in their own beds. I believe the dead count numbers, I just don't believe that they have a faintest clue as to what the total case count is. That said, I expect the case fatality rate to vary significantly from region to region, as seen in China. 10% is totally reasonable. Yeah I agree the numbers are certainly questionable...to add to your post this is a interesting and encouraging article suggesting that asymptomatic cases are far higher than previously thought . https://reaction.life/oxford-study-50-of-uk-population-may-be-infected-already/ 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, riohog said: i think we are and will be far better equiped to deal with it than italy yes .folks behavour i cant predict , but noticeable quiter today than yesterday in my area Same mate, no kids out in the streets playing this morning. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gaz_Lurcherlad 382 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 13 minutes ago, Born Hunter said: I think that's impossible to say at this stage mate. Too many factors at play. The peak depends largely on our behaviour at this point. How effectively we implement social distancing, how effectively we equip the NHS etc. All I'd say is that I am extremely dubious of claims that we are worse off than Italy. The data I'm looking at doesn't support that at this point. What I don’t understand is if China has had it since last year how many people have been spreading round up well before this surely there must have been deaths in uk earlier on in year there had to have been 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
riohog 5,621 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Born Hunter said: Same mate, no kids out in the streets playing this morning. just zeroing in my pea shooter Quote Link to post Share on other sites
king 11,664 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, lurcherman 887 said: Getting sick of hearing it all now maybe they could just stop reporting on it You said that 2 weeks ago yet you still reading the corona topic on here 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
riohog 5,621 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Gaz_Lurcherlad said: What I don’t understand is if China has had it since last year how many people have been spreading round up well before this surely there must have been deaths in uk earlier on in year there had to have been more than likely but may have not been diagnosed as corona Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Gaz_Lurcherlad said: What I don’t understand is if China has had it since last year how many people have been spreading round up well before this surely there must have been deaths in uk earlier on in year there had to have been That's certainly possible but you can predict when patient zero croaked it based on the data after it was found out about and became easily diagnosable. Epidemics like this don't burn slowly, they explode if not fought. Given that we are currently in the early stages of that explosion, I'm not convinced that it's been here very long. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Born Hunter 17,638 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 11 minutes ago, kanny said: Yeah I agree the numbers are certainly questionable...to add to your post this is a interesting and encouraging article suggesting that asymptomatic cases are far higher than previously thought . https://reaction.life/oxford-study-50-of-uk-population-may-be-infected-already/ If that's true it's brilliant news. They are predicting that herd immunity threshold is 80% and that right there is the END! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Gaz_Lurcherlad 382 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 1 minute ago, Born Hunter said: If that's true it's brilliant news. They are predicting that herd immunity threshold is 80% and that right there is the END! I heard 60% but surely either would take years to become immune Quote Link to post Share on other sites
king 11,664 Posted March 25, 2020 Report Share Posted March 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, Born Hunter said: That's certainly possible but you can predict when patient zero croaked it based on the data after it was found out about and became easily diagnosable. Epidemics like this don't burn slowly, they explode if not fought. Given that we are currently in the early stages of that explosion, I'm not convinced that it's been here very long. When you catch the normal flu. It's near on impossible to locate where you caught it. The same as it's impossible to say how long we have had this virus in the UK. Many a person could have thought they had the normal flu months ago Yet they had corona virus.. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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