Born Hunter
-
Content Count
18,006 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
31
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Gallery
Articles
Gun Dealer's and Fieldsports Shop's
Reloading Room
Blogs
Calendar
Store
Classifieds
Everything posted by Born Hunter
-
Lucy, Arrival, Interstellar, Stargate, Contact.
-
Not at all mate.
-
I also want to clarify this. I'm seeing more a more folks pointing out cases of apparently healthy young people dying. I'm assuming by doing this they are trying to suggest these demographics are at significant or even equal risk? I really don't think anything has changed. Yes healthy people are and will die, yes young people will die, even children if the pandemic continues. That doesn't mean these demographics are at the same risk as the old and those in the, now well publicised, vulnerable groups. It's just the nature of statistics.
-
Found myself researching China's nuclear capabilities last week just to see if it was feasible..... My mind is a f***ing roller-coaster at times!
-
Really out of my depth there mate. I'm just looking at numbers and basic trends. That's my thing. What your asking is probably quite in depth virology/chemistry/engineering stuff. I just want to make that clear. My gut instinct says that if they had something then it'd be publicly known about, for one simple reason really it'd provide a sense of progress and control. It may well then be restricted by the government and testing operated in a controlled way. But I honestly don't know mate. In these instances I really strongly defer to the actual experts in the field.
-
Honest to f**k nuke the c**ts now. The whole country is f***ing a bio-hazard!
-
Data! We need data! Everyone seems focused on 'weapons' but intelligence is mighty powerful in a war. I think the South Koreans have proven that.
-
I'm following those numbers like my life depends on it, looking up sources etc etc. And I'm not the least bit concerned really. LOL. I just want to cut through the bollocks and find the truth. I wouldn't like to back any dog in this race at this point, but yeah, I'm certainly not expecting the world to end for us just yet. It's just not clear and plenty of reason to be hopeful.
-
Mate, you see things very black and white. I never see things with such contrast, the whole world is varying shades of grey to my mind and eye. Do you understand where I'm going with that? Put simply, yes we should. It's when we start talking about the details that we might disagree.
-
Indeed but given the lack of certainty it's wise to play safe. Your post was certainly reason to be hopeful. Not negligent.
-
I agree with that, we don't really have a clue how many have been infected already. That data is untrustworthy. But, since the world found out about COVID-19 and learnt how to diagnose it anyone dying from respiratory related illness will be tested and so that data IS trustworthy. That data is showing an exponential growth, in layman's terms 'an explosion', which is consistent with a new infectious disease. Not something which has been around for a long time imo.
-
That or their quarantine has worked. Be difficult to determine the cause.
-
I'm saying that it's not if you understand the system well enough. Epidemics follow exponential trends which means the data can be extrapolated forwards or backwards. You just need trustworthy data.
-
But flu is endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This is a novel (new) disease which is following typical epidemic trends. You can't compare the two.
-
Because the disease is not well studied the estimates vary. They're basing it on other infectious diseases. 60% would be even better of course. the time it takes depends on how fast it spreads. Our confirmed cases total about 8000 today but that is just confirmed. If the vast majority do not become significantly symptomatic or mistake their symptoms for something like a mild cold then you can see how it could easily have run through hundreds of thousand in the UK already. Right now, the only data I trust highly is the dead count since we found out about it.
-
If that's true it's brilliant news. They are predicting that herd immunity threshold is 80% and that right there is the END!
-
That's certainly possible but you can predict when patient zero croaked it based on the data after it was found out about and became easily diagnosable. Epidemics like this don't burn slowly, they explode if not fought. Given that we are currently in the early stages of that explosion, I'm not convinced that it's been here very long.
-
Same mate, no kids out in the streets playing this morning.
-
Also, that graph was plotted on Log Lin scales, like the one in the Express report. Plotted Lin Lin looks even more optimistic.
-
I'm not sure how much I trust those numbers. The country has been so overwhelmed that people are dying in their own beds. I believe the dead count numbers, I just don't believe that they have a faintest clue as to what the total case count is. That said, I expect the case fatality rate to vary significantly from region to region, as seen in China. 10% is totally reasonable.
-
There's some smart fellas on here. Please, someone else spend half an hour looking at the numbers and show me where I'm wrong.
-
I think that's impossible to say at this stage mate. Too many factors at play. The peak depends largely on our behaviour at this point. How effectively we implement social distancing, how effectively we equip the NHS etc. All I'd say is that I am extremely dubious of claims that we are worse off than Italy. The data I'm looking at doesn't support that at this point.
-
That's fair mate. I'm a bit surprised by it myself to be honest. Hey, maybe I'm wrong.
-
I want to add to that, as it obviously encourages the reader to make the prediction that the UK is about to become Italy.... The UK has 50% more ventilators per capita than Italy and our Industry is stepping up in traditional British fashion to knock out a heap more. I'm not trivialising this, just presenting the facts.
