Born Hunter
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Everything posted by Born Hunter
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But flu is endemic with seasonal fluctuations. This is a novel (new) disease which is following typical epidemic trends. You can't compare the two.
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Because the disease is not well studied the estimates vary. They're basing it on other infectious diseases. 60% would be even better of course. the time it takes depends on how fast it spreads. Our confirmed cases total about 8000 today but that is just confirmed. If the vast majority do not become significantly symptomatic or mistake their symptoms for something like a mild cold then you can see how it could easily have run through hundreds of thousand in the UK already. Right now, the only data I trust highly is the dead count since we found out about it.
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If that's true it's brilliant news. They are predicting that herd immunity threshold is 80% and that right there is the END!
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That's certainly possible but you can predict when patient zero croaked it based on the data after it was found out about and became easily diagnosable. Epidemics like this don't burn slowly, they explode if not fought. Given that we are currently in the early stages of that explosion, I'm not convinced that it's been here very long.
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Same mate, no kids out in the streets playing this morning.
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Also, that graph was plotted on Log Lin scales, like the one in the Express report. Plotted Lin Lin looks even more optimistic.
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I'm not sure how much I trust those numbers. The country has been so overwhelmed that people are dying in their own beds. I believe the dead count numbers, I just don't believe that they have a faintest clue as to what the total case count is. That said, I expect the case fatality rate to vary significantly from region to region, as seen in China. 10% is totally reasonable.
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There's some smart fellas on here. Please, someone else spend half an hour looking at the numbers and show me where I'm wrong.
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I think that's impossible to say at this stage mate. Too many factors at play. The peak depends largely on our behaviour at this point. How effectively we implement social distancing, how effectively we equip the NHS etc. All I'd say is that I am extremely dubious of claims that we are worse off than Italy. The data I'm looking at doesn't support that at this point.
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That's fair mate. I'm a bit surprised by it myself to be honest. Hey, maybe I'm wrong.
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I want to add to that, as it obviously encourages the reader to make the prediction that the UK is about to become Italy.... The UK has 50% more ventilators per capita than Italy and our Industry is stepping up in traditional British fashion to knock out a heap more. I'm not trivialising this, just presenting the facts.
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Cheers mate. I personally think that's some pretty shitty reporting. I've done my own analysis and when you correct for the onset of the epidemic in the UK by 13 days (we had our first death 13 days after Italy did) the rate of deaths is arguably less than Italy. But frankly probably about on par.
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Can you give me a source for that claim mate?
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I can't stress enough how good Amazon Prime's The Expanse is. You wanna see what the future looks like, there it is! Hard science fiction.
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The same guy who wrote Sicario wrote Yellowstone. Taylor Sheridan. He also did Hell or High Water and one of my favourites Wind River. IMO he's a name to watch out for.
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The nature of epidemics hasn't changed, we're not likely to have a vaccine in the near future and we have no reason to be sure the epidemic will stall in the summer. I honestly don't know where people are getting 3, 8, 12 weeks etc from... Only way I can see it being over so soon is if they let it just rip on through us.
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Actually, I consider this quarantine lark as a rehearsal for my selection to the expeditionary branch of Space Force. ‘Born Hunter’ will be my call sign! “starlog, day 1’473, toilet roll is running low!”
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The risk from a epidemic/pandemic is fundamentally to our systems imo. Specifically their lack of adaptability and preparedness. Many times people hypothesise about an infectious disease culling off the invasive old Homo Sapien, natures way of 'fixing' us. But I still think that idea is very unlikely. How vulnerable our systems are to such an event caught me completely off guard. How resilient they are is yet to be fully seen.
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I was going to start a thread or discussion or summat on how to deal with this. Personally I'm trying to maintain some semblance of routine. I mean, I'm still supposed to be working 8hrs a day so it's not so hard for me. But maintaining my usual rise and bed time (that sounds childish), physical exercise etc I think is really important. Hardest part is living alone, not seeing anyone, so social media and general modern day communications is more important than normal. It's nice if nothing else to let the dogs out the kennel all day and watch them lounging in the sun.
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I think it'd be straightforward to close the markets, but backdoor trade would obviously be difficult. Agree on all counts. I'm not sure anymore if I'm joking when I say I think the West should consider a first strike, for many reasons.
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f***ing killjoy!
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Alphamax.... full choke!
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But people are still mixing, in the UK and globally. False or misleading information isn't going to help that situation. If someone isn't sure if they have COVID19 then they are likely to be more cautious than if they are sure they just have a cold. Nothing that you posted is likely to be critical to public health but all the same it's not accurate.
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I don't think any of it would hurt but it potentially leads people to believe certain actions are safer than they really are. For instance the runny nose thing, that's not accurate, but might lead someone to self diagnose a cold and then negligently interact with others. Edited to add. I don't think we should be giving anyone a hard time over such things. There's a desperate thirst for 'what to do'.
