Armed Cops leave mag in childs bedroom

[Urban Fox Control London 8]

I know they must be under alot of stress eating all thoughs doughnut's, but how could they loose a mag during a search of a child's bedroom.

 

Good job the suspect didn't show his face !!!!!!

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1293105/Raoul-Thomas-Moat-Armed-police-leave-ammunition-family-home-search.html

[Terryorr 27]

There is no excuse for that. If you or I left a mag of less powerful ammo somewhere carelessly we wouldn,t hold an FAC to long afterwards

[jackinbox99 41]

I remember reading an article in a newspaper when I was in the states a few months back and it said about the number of guns the homelands department have lost over there and its a lot. They gave examples of cops leaving them in washrooms at gas stations, leaving them on the roof off their car as they drove off and all sorts. I was amazed!!!!

[AzMaN 0]

I know the guy they are after is armed, but rearly 20 rounds to take him down!, and assuming its a spare mag and there was another 20 loaded in the rifle, thats alota firepower to take on 1 man

[Night Hunter 109]

I wonder what if anything will happen to the officer reponsible as he has given unauthorised people access to his ammunition,I know that accidents happen but I have heard that the police have revoked the firearms certificate of someone who inadvertantly left a bullet in thier own vehicle.I always count my rounds in and out to be sure that every round is accounted for and rounds are carried in a bullet holder in a secure pocket at all times.

[matt_hooks 188]

"copper tipped bullets"

 

F#####g useless f#####g pointless f#####g ignorant f######g journalists!

[danw 1,748]

AMERICAN SKIN (41 SHOTS) was inspired from the incident that took place on 04 Feb 1999, when four white New York City plainclothes police officers, (Richard Murphy, Kenneth Boss, Sean Carroll, and Edward McMellon), shot dead Amadou Diallo, a 22 year old black West African immigrant. The four men suspected Diallo to match the profile of a rapist that had committed crimes in the area then (Bronx), and when he tried to pull out what they later found out was to be his wallet (which they presumed to be a gun), they opened fire, "41 shots", 19 of which hit the target. The officers were later tried for murder, but were found innocent by the jury. The verdict was not welcomed by many groups which created an atmosphere of tension in the city.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB453G1ggpo

 

Perhaps they do need that much ammo

[matt_hooks 188]

British police are somewhat more circumspect. De Menez only got 11 rounds!

[danw 1,748]

British police are somewhat more circumspect. De Menez only got 11 rounds!

 

To be honest I only posted it because I like the springsteen song :icon_redface:

[jackinbox99 41]

I know the guy they are after is armed, but rearly 20 rounds to take him down!, and assuming its a spare mag and there was another 20 loaded in the rifle, thats alota firepower to take on 1 man

 

And thats just one bloke! They reckon theres about about 70 armed officers searching for him, plus 20 armed vehicles shipped over from NI, plus police snipers! They still havent said what weapons this Moat guy has appart from they suspect its a couple of sawn off shotguns!

[matt_hooks 188]

Indeed. Just goes to show how easy it is for someone to avoid capture, even in a fairly small area, if they have half a clue what they're doing!

 

What they need to do is get a few of the people who are E & E and search experts in, 22 should be able to find him in a couple of hours!

 

The way he's outgunned, it's not exactly sporting!

 

Hope they catch him before he hurts anyone else!

[markha 99]

I know they have some very good search managers working with the police, both military and civilian, the search areas will constantly be evolving as the search continues. Its is a very simple tested and repeatable formula when searching for anything:

 

POS= POA x POD - pos-probability of success as a percentage. poa - probability of area. pod-probability of detection.

 

Basically the probability of success will never ever reach 100%, at best you will only get a 90% POS, I cant be arsed to type all the factors etc, But searching for missing people is a very difficult task that takes masses of rescourses, I myself am a trained search manager and we do a test piece on exam called the Edith Brown map problem, which is a search for a missing altzheimers patient in a semi urban area, even when you follow the book and work the maths that 10% error on POS gets you even when an area has been searched before hand by air and ground scenting dogs, helicopters with thermal imaging and also by foot searches.

 

Would the lads from PATA find him? doesnt make any difference the POS is still the same regardless of the amount of manpower available, it just means less manpower = longer time to search allready defined areas based on the POA.

 

I have done E&E, tactical questioning etc and the reason they/we get found so quickly is that the escapees are bound to a specific area so your in an area of slightly higher POS in the first place, if those excersize boundaries were non limiting most of thse on E&E would never be found.

 

The problem with searches is that even if you have 3 areas to choose from as a primary sear area, you can only get at best a 90% pos, once area 1 has been searched and say it has a figure of 45% pos, then area 2 will be searched it may have a pos of 60%, then area 3 is searched it may have a pos of 20%. Area 3 is now primary search area, and these 3 areas will rotate round search wise untill they have all been searched to the maximum of around 90% POS.

If you throw in a sighting in a new area this doesnt automatically exclude the other search areas as they still have to be searched once the numbers are crunched, If you keep on getting fresh information of a possible sighting your search area widens and you need even more rescourses.

 

 

Another way of looking at searches and the fact/figures, around 4000 people go completely missing in the UK each year! they simply dissappear, they dont use their bank cards, their cars, their phones or passports, they simply vanish never to be seen again! Thats the size of a small village.

 

Now add in the fact that your searching for someone who doesnt want to be found then, you have a very big and long drawn out task ahead.

There are only a few outcomes for finding this guy:

he hands himself in - in which case the time frame could be short, could also be long

he stays in the search area and slips up - gets seen and the chase is on

he moves well outside the search area and isnt spotted by general public - the whole search plan has to be redefined and started over.

 

Know even if this guy is in contact with the police using a mobile phone, they can only get a fix on a phone with 1 line of latitude initially as the very fastest fix, it would take a bit longer to get true triangulation and you could be in another are by the time that LKP, last know position, is found.

 

 

In the UK there are some very very good search managers and also trackers, but unless this guy stays in the search area and slips up, or he gets dropped in the brown stuff by a friend, it could go on for a while.

[matt_hooks 188]

Mark, an excellent review of the situation from one who actually has knowledge of procedures, SP awarded! Maybe you should consider informing the ignoramuses that like to call themselves "journalists"!

 

As I said, it just proves how bloody difficult it is to find someone with a bit of knowledge who just doesn't want to be found!

 

If I were him, I would by this point have trekked many miles from the initial search area. Even with the blanket media coverage, get rid of the readily identifiable features (clever move getting spotted on CCTV in that bright orange shirt and dodgy haircut!) and most people will completely fail to identify him. It's so easy to change appearance!

 

Unless he monumentally cocks up, or someone decides the reward is worth more than his friendship (can you actually BE friends with a sociopathic maniac?) or he finally decides to start shooting, he may well never be caught!

[blackfox 9]

Good post Mark

 

- There is also the possibility that he may commit suicide, if done in the wilderness, the body may not be found for a considerable time

 

Will he hand himself in? i doubt it

[markha 99]

I think his trip to B&Q was a definite taunt in the early stages of this search, like Matt said, bright orange top etc stands out from the crowd.

He going to have to eat, drink and sleep, all of which will be hard for him as he is undoubtedly under a lot of stress, his sleep pattern is going to be all over the place, his nerves on edge and his appetite blown.

 

Im not sold on the idea that he would kill himself, He knows he is going to jail for a long time, He's a 'bouncer', sorry 'professional greeter', hes also a 'big old unit'.

So this is aguy who wanted to work out at the gym and get big and hard, because in reality he nneds that 'image', he wont have taken the non steroid route to gaining muscle so he would have taken something like dianobol or orther similar anabolic, perhaps even to the stage of injecting testosterone cypionate based steroids.

He work in nightclubs and other associated work that that brings, so he more than likely loves a bit of a rumble when the drunks play up. Bouncers, well the ones I have come across, usually like to meet nice new girls on a regular basis, its an attraction of the job/image etc Obviously the guy was gutted when the boot was on the other foot and his girlfriend had enough and moved on with her life.

 

So he gets some " roid rage" one of many side effects from steroid use, hes real upset that his girl is sleeping with another guy, its the 'sleeping bit' that really pisses him off, because he likes sex and lots of it, to him its just sex, but to his girl and new boyfriend it may be a bit deeper than that, and he may well know thats the case, but basically he cant stand the thought of another guy with his girlfriend.

How did his girlfriend find out? yea, thats just what he is thinking, so theres another score to settle perhaps, any way I digress, He pulls the trigger and he hasnt solved the problem at all, and he knows it, he going to be done for 2 dead bodies, regardless of state of mind or motive.

 

His threats to the police are not that strange, maybe he would have loved to have joined the police in his younger years, but now hes just a night club bouncer with big muscles and probably hates it when the police turn up outside the night club to take offenders off his hands, In short he isnt man enough to be a police officer and he knows it , so that pisses him off too, he doesnt like them because he cant be one of them.

 

But now he has the attention of the whole of the UK, and hes getting more than his '5 minute of fame' and he probably likes that, but he knows the price for all thats gone is high.

Will he live through it? That does depend on how much of a man ' in his eyes' he really is. A face off with armed police is going to be a tough result to call, if hes a 'real man in his eyes' then I think he will provoke a clear and defined threat response from armed officers, whether they have been given rules of engagement to kill or wound and whether that actually happens are 2 seperate things, I remeber an incident in Birmingham where armed police went to a supermarket where a woman was taken hostage by a man with a knife, the man let her go and threatened the armed police with a knife, they justified their shooting him in the legs with the fact that even though the guy was over 20 feet away the officer were threatened by the knife and opened fire.